Essays

Questions about the Future of AI

Considerations about economics, history, training, deployment, investment, and more

Apr 21 •

What fully automated firms will look like

Everyone is sleeping on the *collective* advantages AIs will have, which have nothing to do with raw IQ - they can be copied, distilled, merged, scaled…

Jan 31 •

Dec 27, 2024 •

Dwarkesh Podcast Progress Update

I was 2 months away from quitting the podcast for 2 years.

Aug 20, 2024 •

Will scaling work?

Data bottlenecks, generalization benchmarks, primate evolution, intelligence as compression, world modelers, and other considerations

Dec 26, 2023 •

Contra Marc Andreessen on AI

"The claim that you will completely control any system you build is obviously false, and a hacker like Marc should know that"

Jun 13, 2023 •

Lessons from The Years of Lyndon Johnson by Robert Caro

"Explore a single individual deeply enough and truths about all individuals emerge." - Robert Caro

May 3, 2023 •

The mystery of the miracle year

An interesting pattern recurs across the career of great scientists: an annus mirabilis (miracle year) in which they make multiple, seemingly…

Apr 14, 2022 •

Contra David Deutsch on AI

"The universal explainers hypothesis is incorrect because it cannot explain why some animals are smart and some humans are stupid."

Jan 17, 2022 •

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